The traditional definitions of a "market correction" and a "bear market" are and declines, respectively. All eight indexes on our watch list have been in correction territory. As of last week, seven of eight had dropped into bear territory.
With updated return expectations, we estimate that the performance of U. stocks and bonds over the next 10 years will be significantly lower than long-term historical averages. Other asset classes may produce moderately better returns.
The Economic Cycle and Research Institute Index has a good track record of predicting bull and bear markets, and as it currently stands, suggests a greater chance of a downturn in stock than otherwise.